A Foresight Scenario. What does the Autism Epidemic Have to do with our Nation’s Defense Posture?

A version of this article was originally published Aug 25, 2020.

Interdependencies are key structural components in any complex system. One would be hard pressed to develop foresight without considering such interdependencies as they provide clues to the drivers of future changes. Interdependence is more than just a simple connection. To paraphrase and borrow from Aristotle’s Metaphysics and - later — Immanuel Wallenstein’s world-systems theory, interdependence - as a noun - is used to characterize the dynamics of the whole - as ‘the whole’ will act much differently than the sum of its parts. These dynamic, evolving, adaptive interdependencies have the power to fundamentally shape an outcome that - in today’s linear-thinking analytic environment - are not only not understood, they are not even considered. We need to consider other - very divergent views - on complex realities - that fall well-outside our traditional analytic frameworks - embrace complexity-thinking and consider all those interdependencies that shape and inform outcomes of critical importance.

With this short backdrop — This article marks my ‘inaugural’ post for what will become a series of articles asking the hard questions about interdependencies to a myriad of complex challenges that impact on the questions that we ask and the changed states that we want to achieve.

By way of background — August 2020 - Dr. David Martin put pen to paper and shaped the outline for the original version of this article and we worked to present a foresight scenario that would highlight critical interdependencies between several seemingly unrelated events. Today - my updated version — with David’s permission - taking on a slightly different perspective.

The Department of Defense must unequivocally acknowledge that the very statistic that should send alarm bells across the DoD is one prediction alone: by the year 2030, one in two children in the United States will be diagnosed with Autism.

What does this mean for our Nation’s ability to recruit and sustain a ready defense posture?

David’s Note:   Drawing on its experience with the Arlington Institute, the Singapore Risk Assessment Horizon Scanning (RAHS) Program and UK Foresight – M·CAM has examined a possible scenario impacting the national defense posture of the United States. M·CAM has developed a foresight model into the scenario below. What gave rise to this inquiry was a comprehensive review of vaccine patents held by corporations, institutions, and individuals around the world in response to the SARS Coronavirus events of 2020. Specifically, M·CAM examined the 1,705 patents and patent applications which address vaccination and autism. Dr. David E. Martin, Chairman, M·CAM International LLC

The relationship between vaccination technology and vaccine injury has been the subject of highly charged public discourse heightened by the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (NCVIA) in 1986, establishing a federal no-fault system to compensate victims of injury caused by mandated vaccines. Since then, over 1,700 patents and patent applications have been filed specifically associating vaccines and autism. Among them is U.S. Patent 9,937,233 - “Engineered nucleic acids and use thereof” – issued to Moderna on April 10, 2018. This patent’s description proposes a vaccine-like treatment for conditions frequently published as possible vaccine injuries.

“In some embodiments, modified mRNAs and their encoded polypeptides in accordance with the present invention may be used for therapeutic purposes. In some embodiments, modified mRNAs and their encoded polypeptides in accordance with the present invention may be used for treatment of any of a variety of diseases, disorders, and/or conditions, including but not limited to one or more of the following: autoimmune disorders (e.g. diabetes, lupus, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis); inflammatory disorders (e.g. arthritis, pelvic inflammatory disease); infectious diseases (e.g. viral infections (e.g., HIV, HCV, RSV), bacterial infections, fungal infections, sepsis); neurological disorders (e.g. Alzheimer's disease, Huntington's disease; autism; Duchenne muscular dystrophy); cardiovascular disorders (e.g. atherosclerosis, hypercholesterolemia, thrombosis, clotting disorders, angiogenic disorders such as macular degeneration); proliferative disorders (e.g. cancer, benign neoplasms); respiratory disorders (e.g. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease); digestive disorders (e.g. inflammatory bowel disease, ulcers); musculoskeletal disorders (e.g. fibromyalgia, arthritis); endocrine, metabolic, and nutritional disorders (e.g. diabetes, osteoporosis); urological disorders (e.g. renal disease); psychological disorders (e.g. depression, schizophrenia); skin disorders (e.g. wounds, eczema); blood and lymphatic disorders (e.g. anemia, hemophilia); etc.”

Recognizing that pharmaceutical companies are aware of the commercial value of developing treatments for the growing incidence of sequelae of their own products, M·CAM contemplated how this awareness might impact other segments of society with a particular focus on National Defense.

The fact that America has been able to rely on the tens of thousands of eligible and healthy enlistment-age individuals to volunteer for service into the U.S. Armed Forces has been a time-honored practice that has served our nation well. These respected individuals have stepped up and committed their service to the defense of our nation and, in doing so, have made our country safer and our freedoms preserved.

All Americans acknowledge the tremendous sacrifices that our Soldiers, Airmen, Sailors and Marines make every day to defend the principals of our Nation. Their commitment to stand in ready defense against the threats that we face now and tomorrow is honored. We also honor all those service members, both active- duty, retired and those Department of Defense (DoD) Civilians and Contractors who have and currently also volunteer to serve and defend.

With this said — I’ll make a statement. The very freedoms we enjoy and the very National Security we demand - have interdependencies to the health of our nation. The key element that enables a ready national defense is that there is, and has been, a healthy population of individuals from which to recruit. It is the individual, not the technologies, the treaties, the equipment or the policy alliances-- it is the individual American who volunteers to serve that we rely upon the most. It is with this population that we must be most concerned about.

I need to emphasize this last part and state, in the most strident terms possible - that a serious threat to our readiness posture will come - in part, because or children are sicker than previous generations and (depending on the gravity of their illnesses) will not be eligible for enlistment or capable of operating within a chain of command.

By way of some context, and citing the March 26, 2020 Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network report and reporting on the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), as one source – the statistics were as follows:

·      “one in 150 children in the 2007 report”

·      “one in 110 children in the 2009 report”

·      “one in 88 children in the 2012 report”

·      “one in 68 children in the 2014 report”

·      “and one 68 children in the 2016 report”

·      the report also states that “…in Maryland, the prevalence of ASD was 1 in 52 children: 1 in 33 for boys and 1 in 128 for girls.,”

Of note, the Autism data set alone does not begin to account for other chronic illnesses (autoimmune diseases, metabolic disorders, etc.) that beset our U.S. populations and the health care system today. These health statistics will overwhelmingly consume the daily lives of Americans and should stand out as a stark and grave concern to those planning for our future National Defense and readiness posture.

Why, you may be asking, does the DoD need to focus on the Autism statistics or the Autism Epidemic? What are the interdependencies?

As I already stated – the increase in the autism diagnosis alone presents challenges to our Nation’s ability to defend itself as there may simply not be a large eligible pool of candidates from which to recruit. Does this mean that there won’t be some, with an Autism diagnosis that can serve - of course - but look hard at the projected numbers of those that may be non-verbal and the argument becomes stark. This data should be used by the DOD - as our early warning or indication and warning indicators (I&W) that informs a foresight scenario - highlighting these interdependencies.

Further — the DoD also relies on civilian and contractor support and will find that this pool of candidates and potential employees for the civilian federal government workforce could also be impacted. With potentially one in two American children requiring care for their autism diagnosis and health care, nearly every American family will be impacted by the fiscal, education and or social interventions needed to mitigate this crisis.

I ask the following question: Does a current or future competitor simply need to sit back and wait ten more years (less now) and watch our nation dissolve under the burden of an overwhelmed health care system? If so – would it be the result of our inability to address the hard data that is available now – as it relates to the Autism Epidemic – and impacts our defense readiness posture?

These questions alone may well be the major focus for our leaders charged with the defense of our Nation as we move beyond COVID19 and into the very serious topic of our declining health state and its nexus to our national security and readiness posture.

The DoD must be focused on this issue and seek out those who hold a more nuanced, independent and scientific perspective on the causes of the Autism epidemic. This community must be consulted and brought into the planning and policy making decisions. I argue that since there is an entire body of research that has – to date - been vilified, censored, and otherwise silenced that the DoD must take a brave and bold stand to include this data, challenge the so-called ‘approved’ data and go outside the normal channels for their sources of data. You will find that there is a rigorous body of research from esteemed scholars and scientist from around the world and they tell a very, very different story about this issue. They have considered the interdependent connections that must be considered to provide a holistic framework for this challenge.

My recommendation is succinct. The DoD must immediately expand the scope of national security defense postures and readiness planning to include this nuanced accounting of the current health of the U.S. population and future health trends. Include the so-called ‘controversial’ relationships to documented and federally- indemnified vaccine injuries as a contributor to the crisis. We exclude this possible interdependency at our peril.

There have been numerous efforts to bring the issue of the Autism Epidemic to the fore, however it comes as no surprise to any parent dealing with the day to day care of an Autistic child - that this topic is fraught with narrowly authorized and approved voices on this issue - negating the very real and well documented data that dares to address any relationship to substances designed to stimulate the immune system (vaccine adjuvants) and any association to regressive encephalopathy, neuroinflammation, metabolic disorders and the decline in our children’s health.

In the 2018 Book by J.B. Handley, How to End the Autism Epidemic, J.B. notes “…The House of Representatives’ Oversight and Government Reforms Committee almost held a hearing in November 2013 about the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program following Mary Holland’s paper detailing the eighty-three cases of vaccine-induced autism and Rolf Hazlehurst’s memo detailing apparent corruption during the OAP hearings-until industry influences were brought to bear and the hearing was canceled. The hearing needs to take place, and Drs. Zimmerman, Kelley and Poling need to be compelled to testify” (Handley, p. 240).

Further, Mr. Handley writes, in the same book, that “…Dr. William Thompson needs to testify…”. Dr. Thompson is a CDC whistleblower who alleged fraud at the CDC on “…a critical study assessing the relationship between vaccines and autism, yet no one in Congress has compelled Dr. Thompson to testify” (Handley,

p. 240). These issues (legislative and details of agency influence) are significant. The references above, to J.B.’s book, will be underscored later but also note that his book will prove to be an expansive look into a number of related - interdependent data and sources that the DoD should include. Further, there are other fields of emerging research available on the topics of epigenetics, aluminum (alum) as an adjuvant, as found in the brains of Alzheimer and Parkinson patients, and the work that Dr. Chris Exley is doing on this topic. The research by Dr. James Lyons-Weiler and his work on “Pathogenic priming” is also extremely critical. There are many more voices on this topic and many from across the emerging topic of mRNA-based pharmaceutical products.

A senior leader within the DoD might well ask the following: What are the more common and permanent impairments, those behaviors or conditions that could directly jeopardize fitness for both health and command situations? To the uninitiated to the very complex topic of Autism or Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and how this is manifested as specific behaviors or conditions such as encephalopathy and residual seizure disorder – there is not one single set of symptoms.    Among the more reported behaviors the “…inability to relate to others (called “social-emotional reciprocity”), “gross deficits” in language development, peculiar speech patterns, and unusual relationships with the environment (attachment to inanimate objects, rigidity, etc.) are among the symptoms” (Handley, p. 19). There are countless documented cases describing conditions found across the medical and legal communities.

In J.B. Handley’s book, he discusses “…Mary Holland et al.’s 2011 study published in Pace Environmental Law Review, “Unanswered Questions from the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program,” where cases of brain damage and autism were addressed (p. 231). To those thinking that there may be some potential enlistees from among the population, with an autism diagnosis, and that have been ‘recovered’ -  thus – could serve - also ask if it would be prudent to further subject these future service members to the DoD military mandates for vaccines that far exceed the uptake of vaccines within the remaining U.S. civilian population.

Agencies, DoD Agency Heads, Program Offices and Managers such as the Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness; Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs (ASD[HA]), the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command (USAMRMC), the Biomedical Advance Research and Development Authority (BARDA), the DoD Joint Vaccine Acquisition Program, the USAMRMC Special Immunizations Program (SIP), the Director of Defense Research and Engineering and the Armed Forces Epidemiological Board (AFEB) and Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manpower & Reserve Affairs - to cite a few - must all be included – but – and this is a major caveat – there must be a seat at the table by those scientists and researcher already cited, and more as we work to address this problem. If anything has become clear - as we see large efforts to transition to global health care solutions and/or ‘universal’ solutions to one’s health — we risk losing valuable insights into the types of interdependencies addressed in this article. Our health care institutions must be challenged. We need more perspectives - more independent - interdependent perspectives on this grave topic!

A few last closing comments – the reading list. Yes, the mandatory reading list.

Nearly every senior leader across the Department of Defense has a reading list. Their reading lists are expansive and cover a myriad of topics. They often include books and articles ranging from Sun Tzu and warfare to tailored books on leadership and how to develop the next great leaders. For the Defense professional ——- I would add two more books as required reading.

One: the book titled Treatise on Efficacy – Between Western and Chinese Thinking, by Francois Jullien and the other already mentioned –

Two: a mandatory read -- the book by J.B. Handley – How to End the Autism Epidemic. Of note: at least 10 thousand copies have been sent to nearly every legislator across the U.S. The DoD must also read this book so that they can, in part, be aware of the same data that parents, legislators, scientists, lawyers and competitors around the world already know.

On the back of J.B. Handley’s book is a line written by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. that states that it is a “…book every parent must read”. Yes – and – it is a book that every Defense Professional planning for our future defense posture must read.

Add it to your reading list.

To those in a position to advocate for an immediate review of the current crisis - treat J.B. Handley’s book as the Sense of the Community Memorandum (SOCM) and use this SOCM and the data included to inform your decision-making and foresight development processes.

And, as for the recommendation of Julien’s book – a critical examination of Chinese thinking -- in the very simplest of terms – it is about divergent thinking and strategic planning for how to seize on a potential vulnerability in a competitor. In other words – it is an education on how a competitor thinks about leveraging emergent and dynamic systems changes (interdependencies) in a future space that they intend to be involved in. As Jullien states “…if your starting point is the potential in the situation, your relationship to the future is one of anticipation” (p.192).

Bringing this back to the current issue - The U.S. Autism rates are not hypothetical numbers – they are facts - and I would argue – our competitors don’t have to work too hard to anticipate the potential vulnerability in our future defenses nor the opportunities it presents for them. Read the books.

Further, ask the other obvious questions. Do our competitors already know that we have a serious epidemic now? Do they know what is contributing to this epidemic? An epidemic – which -- ironically – won’t go away with a vaccine.

As the questions - how and why could pharmaceutical ‘interventions and mechanisms of action’ alter the course of one’s health in a way that was unanticipated and have a less than desirable outcome.

With mandatory vaccine mandates, and more and more mRNA vaccine injuries being reported, the question of the relationship to the vaccines, injections, gene-based therapies and their adjuvants (and mechanisms of action) must be considered.

There are other interdependences that we must consider - as a final thought —

With the advent of global mandates - poorly thought out - we have - in many places around the world stipulated that - as a condition of being a part of humanity — one must take a pharmaceutical intervention, become a part of a biomedical surveillance system, tracked, tested, traced — to work, to shop, to interact with our fellow friends and family — while failing to ask - what are the social systems and ramifications of human interaction in a world driven by ‘permission to be a part of humanity’ — conditioned by the uptake of a medical product. This alone may be one of the most ludicrous outcomes that we failed to anticipate — the demand for one’s abject sacrifice of someone else’s humanity in pursuit of the novel universal uptake of a ‘treatment’ for the sake of ‘security’.

In closing - This article does not outline a hypothetical future scenario – it is a real.  The one projected statistic alone -- one in two children by 2030 with an Autism diagnosis -- is alarming. This is a call to think critically, question the science, examine the interdependencies - better understand complexity, complex adaptive systems, nonlinearity - and being the process of critical inquiry.

In closing I leave you with this:

“The Health Crisis of our Children today becomes our National Security and Readiness Crisis of Tomorrow”

We are out of time.

August 2030 is less than ten years away.

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